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Prediction for CME (2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-08-14T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9104/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption, below AR 2399. CME may have arrived late on 19 Aug, however this is unclear.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-18T18:00Z (-12.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-08-15T17:17Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 680
Longitude (deg): W036
Latitude (deg): S16
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: Risk of enhanced curving and acceleration along Parker Spiral towards Earth due to proximity of CH HHS and CIR (now post-geoeffective). Also geospace has been wiped by the previous CME (SWPC noted). Low confidence of impact, but is possible.
Space weather advisor: Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 22.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-08-17T19:30Z

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